Just to be fair, there are two LDs I couldn’t review cause I couldn’t find the initial round posts.

So, if we review Ludum Dare voting since we have converted to the +1/0/-1 system, we see some trends:

  • The winners are always one of the top two themes from a previous round.
  • 70% of them have been first place.

So what does that mean for this time…

Here are the two two themes in each of the rounds, ranked in order of score:

  1. [+58] Technology out of place in Time (Or Anachronism)  (1st place Round 4)
  2. [+52] Enemies as Weapons (1st place Round 1)
  3. [+51] Cooperation (1st place Round 3)
  4. [+50] Evolution (2nd place Round 1)
  5. [+36] Rain (2nd place Round 3)
  6. [+32] Hidden Depths (2nd place Round 4)
  7. [+23] Claustrophobia (1st place Round 2)
  8. [+18] Cloning (2nd place Round 2)

From this we can observe certain facts:

  • About 300 or so people voted.   We will use this number for percentages.
  • First off, obviously Round 2 sucked.   There were 3rd and 4th places in other rounds that outscored our two candidates from Round 2, so we can probably count them out.
  • Evolution very often has a strong showing in the preliminary rounds, and then drops out at the end.  Plus it is believed that the world might end if the Ludum Dare theme is Evolution
  • If we discount Evolution, there’s a 15 point gap between 3rd and 5th.  15 people is about 5% of the population, which would be a pretty big swing.

From this, we can pretty safely predict that Anachronism, Cooperation, or Enemies as Weapons will come out on top.


11 Responses to “What will the Theme Be, a (sort of)statistical analysis”

  1. PoV says:

    Interesting analysis. :)

  2. sf17k says:

    These themes look good on the surface, but upon serious consideration we find that they’re very difficult to work with. You don’t rate a politician highly if their promises of hope are unrealistic. Likewise, don’t judge a theme by the romantic images it conjures in your imagination, but by whether or not it will convert into a simple game.

  3. Cooshinator says:

    Dang, that sucks. I hate most of these!

  4. tylo says:

    Yes. Quite. *puffs on a pipe and swirls his snifter of brandy*

  5. xhunterko says:

    You know, one of my hobbies is watching analysts being proven wrong. Just sayin’.

    • Manuel777 says:

      Mine too, but there’s not too many for analyse in here, since the number speak by themselves. I run this very same concept when the round 4 ended and got to the same conclusion: Enemyes as weapons or claustrophobia will be the theme, im quite confident about that… but if we are wrong, i wont be susprised either.

  6. asiekierka says:

    DOUBLE ZOMBIE RAINBOWS >:(

  7. Hamumu says:

    Isn’t Enemies as Weapons previously done? What theme caused Metagun to be created?

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